Shanxi Coking Coal Energy (SZ:000983) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-30 13:19Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong outlook based on the recovery in coking coal prices and the company's competitive advantages in the industry [6]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2025 showed signs of recovery due to a rebound in coking coal prices, with a sequential improvement in operations [6]. - The report highlights that the company achieved a revenue of 27.175 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 17.88%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.434 billion yuan, down 49.62% year-on-year [6][7]. - The report anticipates continued high coal prices due to historical underinvestment in the coal industry and tight supply conditions, which should support the company's profitability moving forward [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2024 and 2025 are 45.290 billion yuan and 42.380 billion yuan respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of -18.4% and -6.4% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 3.108 billion yuan in 2024, decreasing to 2.182 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected recovery to 2.875 billion yuan in 2026 [2]. - The report notes a gross margin of 30.6% for the first three quarters of 2025, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, with a slight improvement in Q3 2025 to 31.7% [6][7]. Market Position and Comparables - The report compares the company with four other coking coal companies, indicating that the average PE valuation for these peers in 2025 is 23 times, suggesting that the company has strong competitive advantages in terms of scale and coal quality [6]. - The current market capitalization corresponds to PE ratios of 19X, 14X, and 13X for the years 2025 to 2027, indicating potential for valuation upside [6].