SUN PAPER(SZ:002078) Tai Ping Yang Zheng Quan·2025-10-30 13:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price based on the last closing price of 14.11 [1][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a steady performance in Q3 2025, with expectations for new capacity to be released [1][4]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 28.936 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.58%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.500 billion yuan, an increase of 1.66% [3][4]. - The report highlights the company's strong cost control and operational resilience, with a slight increase in net profit despite revenue pressures [4]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q3 2025, the company recorded revenue of 9.823 billion yuan, down 6.01%, attributed to weak demand and downward pressure on product prices [4]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 14.07%, showing a slight increase of 0.11 percentage points, supported by the advantages of integrated pulp and paper operations [4]. - The net margin improved to 7.35%, up 0.61 percentage points, indicating enhanced profitability [4]. Capacity Expansion and Integration - The company is advancing its capacity expansion projects, including a 140,000-ton specialty paper project in Shandong, expected to enter trial production in Q1 2026 [5]. - In Guangxi, the company has launched several production lines, including high-end packaging paper and chemical pulp, with ongoing projects expected to further enhance its integrated operations [5]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.354 billion yuan in 2025, 3.826 billion yuan in 2026, and 4.305 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.20, 1.37, and 1.54 yuan [6][7]. - The report anticipates a steady revenue growth rate of 2.80% in 2025, increasing to 7.70% in 2026 and 7.30% in 2027 [7][11].