Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 32.9 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.48% to 11.4 billion yuan. The Q3 revenue was 8.96 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.05%, and the net profit for Q3 was 2.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.38% [6] - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 11.67 billion yuan, 12.27 billion yuan, and 13.33 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -4.6%, +5.1%, and +8.7% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 20x, 19x, and 17x for 2025-2027 [6] - The company has a strong brand foundation and a complete product matrix, maintaining a relatively healthy channel status during the industry downturn, indicating significant growth potential if the industry returns to an upward cycle [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 36.03 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.1%. The net profit for 2025 is projected to be 11.67 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% [5] - The gross profit margin for 2025 is expected to be 75.7%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 29.9% [5] - Q3 2025 gross profit margin was 74.6%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 32.4%, a decrease of 1.78 percentage points year-on-year [6]
山西汾酒（600809）：收入符合预期，维持稳健增长