CMES(SH:601872) Huachuang Securities·2025-10-30 14:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a net profit of 1.18 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 35%, indicating strong performance in the oil transportation sector [1][6] - The report highlights the resilience and potential for performance elasticity in the oil transportation industry due to favorable market conditions [6] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 25,799 million yuan in 2024, 26,405 million yuan in 2025, 28,767 million yuan in 2026, and 30,635 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of -0.3%, 2.3%, 8.9%, and 6.5% respectively [2] - The projected net profit for the company is 5,107 million yuan in 2024, 5,532 million yuan in 2025, 7,083 million yuan in 2026, and 8,139 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 5.6%, 8.3%, 28.1%, and 14.9% [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.63 yuan in 2024, 0.69 yuan in 2025, 0.88 yuan in 2026, and 1.01 yuan in 2027 [2] - The target price for the company's stock is set at 11.4 yuan, with the current price at 8.58 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 33% [2][6] Business Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 19.3 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, while the net profit decreased by 2.1% to 3.3 billion yuan [6] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.73 billion yuan, up 10.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.18 billion yuan, up 35% year-on-year [6] - The oil transportation segment showed a net profit of 1.89 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, down 8.3% year-on-year, but Q3 alone saw a significant increase of 55% to 600 million yuan [6] - The report notes that the VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) average freight rate increased by 21% year-on-year to 37,000 USD/day in Q3 2025, indicating strong market performance [6] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that VLCC freight rates will rise to an average of 80,000 USD/day in September-October 2025, supported by supply constraints and ongoing geopolitical factors [6] - The dry bulk shipping market is expected to recover gradually, driven by increased demand for iron ore, grain, and coal since July 2025 [6] - The diversified business layout of the company is expected to maintain stable operations while providing significant upside potential [6]