STO(SZ:002468) Minsheng Securities·2025-10-30 23:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a strong growth outlook in the context of the express delivery industry [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a 40.3% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025, with expectations for continued strong performance in Q4 due to the "anti-involution" trend [1][3]. - The express delivery industry has shown significant improvement under the "anti-involution" measures, with the company's net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 increasing by 15.8% year-on-year [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 38.57 billion yuan, a 15.2% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit of 2.19 billion yuan, up 12.4% [2]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 13.55 billion yuan, a 13.6% increase year-on-year, and a gross profit of 840 million yuan, up 29.2% [3]. - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 300 million yuan, reflecting a 40.3% year-on-year increase, with a net profit margin of 2.2% [3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company maintained a market share of 13% for the first three quarters of 2025, consistent with the previous year [2]. - The acquisition of Daniao Logistics is a strategic move to enter the high-end market, enhancing the product matrix and optimizing cost structures [4]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.37 billion yuan, 1.81 billion yuan, and 2.29 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.89, 1.19, and 1.50 yuan [4][5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 17, 13, and 10 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, indicating a favorable valuation [4][5].