洪城环境（600461）：2025Q3扣非归母净利润同比增长7.18%，资本开支下行保障高分红

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.738 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.41%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 324 million yuan, up 2.13% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items grew by 7.18% [2][6] - The decline in capital expenditure, which was 662 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 compared to 1.58 billion yuan in the same period last year, supports a high dividend payout ratio [2][13] - The ongoing market-oriented reforms in public utilities are expected to enhance the company's profitability and improve cash flow [13] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 5.426 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.85% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 933 million yuan, an increase of 1.18%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 929 million yuan, up 2.60% [6] - In Q3 2025, the company’s revenue was 1.738 billion yuan, with a net profit of 324 million yuan, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items also at 324 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 7.18% [6] Cost Management - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 38.1%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in accounting for pipeline depreciation [13] - The operating expense ratio for Q3 2025 was 12.3%, down 1.07 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective cost control [13] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - The cash collection ratio for Q3 2025 was 87.8%, a decrease of 13.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to slower payment from local governments [13] - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2025 was 981 million yuan, a decrease of 28.7% year-on-year, while capital expenditures were significantly reduced [13] Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing reforms in the public utility sector, which may enhance profitability and cash flow [13] - Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.23 billion, 1.27 billion, and 1.30 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 9.55, 9.20, and 8.99 [13]