Semir(SZ:002563) CMS·2025-10-31 01:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company experienced a recovery in Q3 2025, with revenue growth of 7.31% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 4.55%, indicating a return to positive profit growth for the quarter [1][6] - Gross margin has shown a steady increase, and cost control measures have effectively reduced expenses compared to previous quarters [6] - The company is focusing on retail transformation, brand management, overseas expansion, and enhancing channel capabilities, which are expected to drive future growth [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2023, total revenue is projected at 13,661 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2% [2] - The company anticipates revenue of 15,355 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a 5% increase, and 16,393 million yuan in 2026, with a 7% growth [2] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 944 million yuan, a decrease of 17% compared to the previous year, followed by a recovery to 1,070 million yuan in 2026 and 1,200 million yuan in 2027 [2][6] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 15x for 2025 and 13x for 2026 [1][6] Key Financial Metrics - The company reported a gross margin of 44.0% in 2023, with a slight increase expected to 44.5% by 2027 [12] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decrease from 10.0% in 2023 to 8.0% in 2025, before recovering to 9.7% in 2027 [12] - The asset-liability ratio is expected to rise from 35.9% in 2023 to 39.7% in 2027, indicating a gradual increase in leverage [12]