CSCEC(SH:601668) GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-10-31 02:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was under pressure due to declining gross margins and increased impairment losses, with total revenue for Q1-3 at 1,558.2 billion yuan, down 4.2% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 38.2 billion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year [1][3]. - The construction business structure is continuously optimizing, with a significant acceleration in real estate sales in Q3, showing a 17% year-on-year increase in the quarter [2][3]. - The company is focusing on core urban areas for real estate investments, with new land reserves of 6.95 million square meters, primarily in first-tier and provincial capital cities [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-3, the company achieved total revenue of 1,558.2 billion yuan, with a quarterly breakdown of 555.3 billion yuan in Q1, 553.0 billion yuan in Q2, and 449.9 billion yuan in Q3, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7% in both Q2 and Q3 [1]. - The gross margin for the company was 8.7%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, with the real estate sector facing significant pressure [3]. - The net profit margin for Q1-3 was 2.5%, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.01 percentage points [3]. Business Segments - Revenue from the construction segments for Q1-3 was 9,886 billion yuan for housing construction, 3,706 billion yuan for infrastructure, and 1,771 billion yuan for real estate, with respective year-on-year changes of -5%, -4%, and +0.6% [2]. - The company reported a 0.7% year-on-year increase in new contracts for housing construction, while industrial plant contracts grew by 23% [2]. Future Projections - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 46.6 billion yuan, 47.6 billion yuan, and 48.5 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.13 yuan, 1.15 yuan, and 1.17 yuan per share [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 5.0 for 2025, with an expected dividend yield of 4.8% [4].