Shede Spirits (SH:600702) CMS·2025-10-31 02:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [3] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was under pressure due to external factors, with revenue and net profit declining by 15.9% and 63.2% year-on-year, respectively. However, inventory reduction is expected to approach completion by the end of 2025, and the company is focusing on product development and channel expansion, particularly in the low-end and e-commerce segments, which are expected to support a recovery in performance [1][6][7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.7 billion yuan and a net profit of 470 million yuan, representing year-on-year declines of 17.0% and 29.4%, respectively [6] - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.0 billion yuan and a net profit of 30 million yuan, with cash receipts of 920 million yuan, reflecting a 19.4% decline year-on-year [6][7] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 62.1%, with a net profit margin of 2.9%, both showing slight declines compared to the previous year [6][7] Product and Channel Performance - The company experienced a deeper decline in mid-to-high-end liquor sales, while low-end liquor sales showed relative strength, with revenue from low-end products increasing by 17.8% year-on-year [6] - E-commerce sales continued to thrive, with a year-on-year increase of 71.4% in Q3 2025, indicating a positive trend in this channel [6] - The company is expected to continue expanding its product lines and enhancing its presence in rural banquet markets, which may gradually yield positive results [1][6] Financial Projections - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 to 1.52 yuan, with projections of 1.94 yuan for 2026 and 2.39 yuan for 2027 [1][6] - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 5.068 billion yuan, with a forecasted decline of 5% year-on-year, followed by modest growth in subsequent years [2][14]