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钧达股份(002865):业绩符合预期,海外产能加速布局

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its performance in the coming years [4][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.682 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 30.72%, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 419 million yuan [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.018 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.42% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.86%, indicating a narrowing of losses compared to the same period last year [1]. - The company has significantly increased its overseas sales proportion, rising from 24% in 2024 to 51% in Q1-Q3 2025, establishing itself as a major supplier of photovoltaic cells in several international markets [2]. - The company is actively pursuing a global strategy, including a strategic cooperation agreement with local component customers in Turkey to enhance production capacity [2]. - The company is investing in next-generation battery technologies, including N-type battery technology and process upgrades, aiming to meet market demand for high-efficiency photovoltaic products [3]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 8.180 billion yuan, 12.135 billion yuan, and 13.750 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be -542 million yuan in 2025, followed by a profit of 631 million yuan in 2026 and 1.171 billion yuan in 2027 [4][6]. - The report anticipates a significant improvement in profitability, with a projected PE ratio of 19x for 2026 and 11x for 2027 [4].