韵达股份(002120):25Q3单票收入环比+0.07元,看好Q4“反内卷”推进下超预期表现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [5][7]. Core Views - The company reported a quarter-on-quarter increase in single ticket revenue of 0.07 yuan in Q3 2025, with expectations for a potentially better-than-expected performance in Q4 due to the effects of the "anti-involution" measures [2][4]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 37.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, but the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 48.2% year-on-year [3][5]. - The company's market share stood at 13.2% for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a slight decline of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 12.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, with a gross profit of 850 million yuan, down 19.2% year-on-year [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 2025 was 200 million yuan, a decrease of 45.2% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 1.6% [4]. - The average revenue per ticket in Q3 2025 was 1.97 yuan, a decrease of 0.06 yuan year-on-year, but an increase of 0.07 yuan compared to Q2 2025 [4]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 1.39 billion yuan in 2025, with projected growth to 2.23 billion yuan by 2027 [5][6]. - The ongoing digital transformation and cost reduction efforts are expected to enhance profitability, with a positive outlook for the second half of 2025 as the "anti-involution" measures continue to take effect [5][6].