Redwall(SZ:002809) NORTHEAST SECURITIES·2025-10-31 05:23Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating, expecting the benefits from the Daya Bay project to be realized [3]. Core Insights - The company operates in two main sectors: concrete additives and fine chemicals, having established a complete industrial chain from materials to finished products [1]. - The Daya Bay project, with a total investment of 660 million yuan, is projected to yield a post-tax internal rate of return of 22.3% [2]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are 900 million, 1.27 billion, and 1.66 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 33%, 41%, and 30% respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 1995 and listed in 2016, the company is headquartered in Huizhou, Guangdong, and is the first in China to focus solely on concrete additives [1]. - The company has over 20 production bases across key regions in China and serves nearly a thousand clients, including major construction firms [1]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 761 million yuan in 2023, with a projected decline to 675 million yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 901 million yuan in 2025 [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to drop significantly to 10 million yuan in 2025, before rebounding to 50 million yuan in 2026 and 119 million yuan in 2027 [4]. Project Development - The Daya Bay project is set to produce 320,000 tons of epoxy ethane and propylene derivatives annually, with full production expected by June 2025 [2]. - The company has secured long-term cooperation agreements with major industry players, enhancing its market position [2]. Market Outlook - The construction sector in China is facing a downturn, with cement production expected to decline by 10% in 2024 and 5% in the first three quarters of 2025 [2]. - Despite the challenges, the company anticipates a recovery in revenue and profit margins post-2025 as the Daya Bay project ramps up production [3].