山西汾酒（600809）：经营韧性突出，省外势能向好

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 32.92 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, with a net profit of 11.40 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.5% [2]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 8.96 billion yuan, up 4.1% year-on-year, while the net profit was 2.90 billion yuan, down 1.4% year-on-year [2]. - The company is experiencing resilience in operations, particularly in expanding its distribution network outside its home province, with an increase of 259 distributors to a total of 2,872 [3]. - The product structure is stabilizing, with revenue from liquor and other beverages for the first three quarters of 2025 at 32.17 billion yuan and 650 million yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 5.5% and a decline of 15.9% [3]. - The company expects revenue growth rates of 4.9%, 5.8%, and 12.2% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 0.3%, 6.8%, and 15.2% for the same years [5]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For Q3 2025, the company reported a net profit margin of 32.4%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points, with a gross margin increase of 0.3 percentage points [4]. - The balance of contract liabilities at the end of Q3 2025 was 5.78 billion yuan, a decrease of 200 million yuan from the previous quarter [4]. Operational Analysis - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand presence and improving its distribution channels, particularly outside its home province [3]. - The revenue from the home province decreased by 35.2% year-on-year in Q3 2025, while revenue from outside the province increased by 31.1% [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 10.06 yuan, 10.75 yuan, and 12.38 yuan, respectively [5]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are estimated at 18.7, 17.5, and 15.2 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5].