中矿资源（002738）：锂价修复，公司业绩改善明显

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) with a target price not specified [7]. Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in performance due to the recovery in lithium prices, with a revenue increase of 34.99% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 4.818 billion yuan [1]. - The company is focusing on a multi-metal platform development strategy, which is expected to enhance its performance in the medium to long term, particularly in lithium, germanium, and copper sectors [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 204 million yuan, a decrease of 62.58% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of lithium prices and losses from the Tsumeb smelter [1]. - The average price of lithium carbonate in the first three quarters of 2025 was 76,000 yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.3% in Q3 [3]. - The company's gross margin improved to 19.66% for the first three quarters of 2025, with Q3 gross margin at 23.24%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.12 percentage points [3]. Project Development Summary - The Kitumba copper project in Zambia commenced construction in July, with a designed ore processing capacity of 3.5 million tons and a copper cathode smelting capacity of 60,000 tons [2]. - The Tsumeb project in Namibia is progressing well, with the first rotary kiln installation for the pyrometallurgical process, designed to produce 33 tons of germanium ingots per year, 11 tons of industrial gallium, and 10,900 tons of zinc ingots [2]. - An investment of 120 million yuan is being made in the lithium salt production line in Jiangxi, expected to be completed by the end of the year, which will increase the company's lithium salt capacity to 71,000 tons [2]. Financial Forecast Summary - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 370 million yuan, 790 million yuan, and 1.07 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3]. - Revenue is projected to grow from 6.608 billion yuan in 2025 to 8.847 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 23.20% and 15.75% for the respective years [5][12].