福能股份（600483）：Q3业绩符合预期存量项目机制电量100%

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The Q3 performance met expectations with a 100% mechanism electricity generation from existing projects [5] - The company reported a Q3 revenue of 3.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.04%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 652 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, aligning with expectations [7] - The increase in gas electricity prices and the growth in alternative electricity generation are expected to significantly boost profitability [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 14,695 million yuan (2023), 14,563 million yuan (2024), 14,647 million yuan (2025E), 14,765 million yuan (2026E), and 16,359 million yuan (2027E) with growth rates of 2.63%, -0.90%, 0.57%, 0.81%, and 10.80% respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 2,623 million yuan (2023), 2,793 million yuan (2024), 2,751 million yuan (2025E), 2,819 million yuan (2026E), and 3,014 million yuan (2027E) with growth rates of 1.17%, 6.47%, -1.51%, 2.46%, and 6.94% respectively [6] - The company plans to start construction on 656,000 kW of offshore wind power and the second phase of the Quanhui thermal power project in 2025, contributing to strong growth prospects over the next 2-3 years [7] Market Performance - The company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 30.9% in 2024, with corresponding dividend yields of 3.0%, 3.1%, and 3.3% for 2025-2027 [7] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 10, 10, and 9 times respectively [7]