Chengtou Holding(SH:600649) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-10-31 06:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has turned a profit in the first three quarters of 2025, primarily due to a significant increase in project transfers, with a projected net profit of 613 million yuan in 2025 [5][6] - The company has a strong land reserve and a clear investment and financing path, which is expected to continuously enhance profitability [5] - The company has implemented its first share buyback, which is expected to boost market confidence [8] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 9.515 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 939%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 287 million yuan, compared to a loss of 216 million yuan in the same period of 2024 [6] - The gross margin for the company was 17.14%, and the net margin was 2.82% [6] - The company’s operating cash flow was 1.306 billion yuan, a decrease of 77.4% year-on-year [6] Sales and Land Reserves - The company reported a sales area of 37,000 square meters in the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 37% year-on-year, with sales revenue of 4.46 billion yuan, down 53% year-on-year [7] - As of mid-2025, the company had approximately 735,000 square meters of land available for development, with 88% located in Shanghai [7] Rental Income and Share Buyback - The company’s rental income reached 280 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 28% [8] - The company has initiated a share buyback plan of 50 to 100 million yuan, with a maximum repurchase price of 6.87 yuan per share, accounting for 0.29% to 0.58% of the total share capital [8] Financial Projections - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 613 million yuan, 836 million yuan, and 991 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.24 yuan, 0.33 yuan, and 0.40 yuan [5][9] - The company’s P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 19.1, 14.0, and 11.8, respectively [9]