山西汾酒（600809）：保持相对优势，经营底牌充足

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu [4] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 8.96 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.90 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.4% [1] - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 totaled 32.92 billion yuan, up 5.0% year-on-year, with a net profit of 11.40 billion yuan, an increase of 0.5% [1] - The report indicates that the company’s gross margin slightly increased to 74.6%, while net margin decreased to 32.7% due to fluctuations in tax rates [1] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2025 revenue from Fenjiu was 8.8 billion yuan, up 5.0% year-on-year, while other liquor categories saw a decline of 28.6% [2] - For the first three quarters of 2025, cumulative revenue growth for Fenjiu was 5.5%, while other liquor categories experienced a decline of 15.9% [2] - The report forecasts diluted EPS for 2025-2027 to be 9.85, 10.14, and 10.69 yuan per share, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.1, 18.5, and 17.6 times [2][3] Revenue and Profitability Metrics - The company’s operating income for 2023A was 31.93 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.8% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A was 10.44 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.9% [3] - The projected net profit for 2025E is 12.02 billion yuan, indicating a decline of 1.8% year-on-year [3] Market Dynamics - The report highlights a significant decline in revenue from the domestic market, which fell by 35.2% in Q3 2025, while revenue from outside the province grew by 31.1% [2] - The company is focusing on inventory reduction in the domestic market, while growth in the external market is attributed to mid-to-low-end products [2]