金禾实业（002597）：代糖需求仍待复苏

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [1] Core Views - The demand for sugar substitutes is still under pressure, but there is potential for recovery in the future [3] - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q3, with revenue at 1.1 billion RMB (down 27% year-on-year) and net profit at 56.77 million RMB (down 65% year-on-year) [1][4] - Despite the current challenges, the report anticipates a gradual recovery in the sugar substitute market due to supply-side support and cost factors [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, the company achieved revenue of 1.1 billion RMB (down 27% year-on-year, down 4% quarter-on-quarter) and a net profit of 56.77 million RMB (down 65% year-on-year, down 38% quarter-on-quarter) [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.54 billion RMB (down 12% year-on-year) and a net profit of 390 million RMB (down 4% year-on-year) [1] Price and Margin Analysis - The average prices for sugar substitutes have increased year-on-year, with specific increases for various products: Trichloro-sucrose +70%, Acesulfame -3%, Methyl-maltose +21%, and Maltose-ethyl +18% [2] - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 improved by 1.3 percentage points to 21.5% due to the increase in product prices [2] Market Outlook - The export volume of Trichloro-sucrose decreased by 41% year-on-year in September 2025, indicating pressure on overseas demand [3] - The report expects a gradual recovery in the sugar substitute market as domestic demand improves and supply-side coordination strengthens among major companies [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards, with net profits projected at 470 million RMB, 670 million RMB, and 770 million RMB respectively, reflecting a significant reduction from previous estimates [4] - The target price for the company is set at 21.58 RMB, based on a 26 times PE ratio for 2025 [4]