YTO(SH:600233) Guoxin Securities·2025-10-31 07:09Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company's performance is recovering in Q3 2025, with revenue of 54.16 billion yuan (+9.7%) and net profit of 2.88 billion yuan (-1.8%) for the first three quarters of 2025. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 18.27 billion yuan (+8.7%) and net profit was 1.05 billion yuan (+11.0%) [1][8] - The company has seen a higher growth rate in parcel volume compared to the industry, with a market share of 15.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year. The "anti-involution" measures implemented by regulators have led to a recovery in single-ticket prices [1][9] - The company is expected to maintain its capital expenditure at around 8 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting its ongoing network improvement and market expansion efforts [2][14] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a single-ticket express net profit of 0.14 yuan, showing a stable recovery trend. The single-ticket transportation cost was 0.36 yuan, down 0.03 yuan year-on-year, while the single-ticket transfer cost was 0.26 yuan, down 0.01 yuan year-on-year [2][14] - The company’s net profit for the express business (excluding air and international operations) grew by 7% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [2][14] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is 4.30 billion yuan, 4.90 billion yuan, and 5.51 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +7%, +14%, and +12% [3][16] - The company is expected to benefit from the short-term positive effects of the "anti-involution" measures in the express delivery industry, which will help in price and performance recovery [3][16] Capital Expenditure and Market Position - The company’s capital expenditure for the first three quarters of 2025 was 6.3 billion yuan, an increase of 34% year-on-year, indicating a strong commitment to expanding its market share [2][14] - The company is actively adjusting its business model, resulting in a reduction of losses in its air and international business by 0.65 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [2][14]