Seazen(SH:601155) NORTHEAST SECURITIES·2025-10-31 07:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of stock price appreciation exceeding 15% over the next six months [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 34.37 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 33.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 970 million yuan, also down 33.1% year-on-year [1][2]. - The decline in revenue and profit is primarily attributed to a decrease in the scale of development project turnover, while the sales price per square meter has shown a recovery, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [2]. - The company has successfully reduced its accounts payable pressure, with construction payables decreasing from 45.27 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 38.39 billion yuan by Q3 2025 [2]. - The operational performance of the company's commercial properties, particularly the Wuyue Plaza, has shown a double-digit growth in rental income, reaching 9.81 billion yuan, up 10.8% year-on-year [2]. Financial Summary - The company is expected to benefit from government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption, stable profits from commercial real estate, and a gradual reduction in losses from residential development [4]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 63.21 billion yuan, 54.63 billion yuan, and 51.30 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 925 million yuan, 1.13 billion yuan, and 1.49 billion yuan [4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the next three years are projected to be 34.54x, 28.33x, and 21.53x, indicating a potential for valuation recovery [4]. Liquidity and Debt Management - The company has effectively eliminated liquidity risks, having issued two domestic notes and two USD bonds within the year, demonstrating a strong financing capability [3]. - The peak debt repayment period has passed, with only a small amount of debt maturing in late 2025, which further alleviates financial pressure [3].