Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Insights - The company's gross margin improved quarter-on-quarter in Q3, indicating a potential recovery in operations next year [2][10]. - The report adjusts the earnings forecast due to challenges from new factory ramp-up and trade friction, projecting EPS for 2025-2027 to be 2.81, 3.42, and 3.94 yuan respectively [3][11]. - The target price is set at 67.44 yuan based on a 24x PE valuation for 2025 [3][11]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million yuan) is projected to grow from 20,114 in 2023 to 31,127 in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 9.9% [4][13]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 3,200 million yuan in 2023 to 4,600 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 15.2% in 2027 [4][13]. - The gross margin is forecasted to be 22.7% in 2025, improving to 25.4% by 2027 [4][13]. Operational Insights - The company faced challenges in Q3 with a 0.34% year-on-year decline in revenue and a 20.73% drop in net profit attributable to the parent company [10]. - Despite these challenges, the company is actively expanding its customer base to mitigate the impact of declining orders from existing clients [10]. - The report highlights that the company’s operational quality remains stable, with a significant net cash from operating activities of 37.63 billion yuan, approximately 1.55 times its profit for the same period [10]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is recognized as a leading global manufacturer of sports shoes, benefiting from strong customer relationships, scale, and innovation capabilities [10]. - The report anticipates a recovery in operations starting next year, with old customer orders expected to gradually resume and new factory efficiencies improving [10].
华利集团（300979）：三季度毛利率环比改善，看好明年经营重拾升势