TECON(SZ:002100) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-10-31 07:51Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in feed business volume and profitability, while reducing costs and improving efficiency in pig farming through mergers and expansions. The profitability of protein and oil businesses is also recovering, leading to the maintenance of the "Buy" rating [3][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 13.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.00%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 412 million yuan, down 27.20% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 4.76 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.49% year-on-year, with a net profit of 73 million yuan, down 74.58% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting net profits of 417 million yuan, 702 million yuan, and 966 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.31 yuan, 0.51 yuan, and 0.71 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 24.2, 14.4, and 10.5 times for 2025-2027 [3][6]. Feed Business Performance - The company's feed sales reached 2.12 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 3.6% year-on-year. In Q3, feed sales were 776,000 tons, up 11.8% year-on-year, with pig feed sales increasing by 18% and poultry feed sales by 8% [4]. - The net profit per ton of feed was approximately 94 yuan for the first three quarters, reaching 110 yuan in Q3. The overall performance of the feed business is improving [4]. Pig Farming Operations - The company sold 2.28 million pigs in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.46%, with revenue from pig sales at 3.34 billion yuan, down 8.23% year-on-year. In Q3, 754,200 pigs were sold, with revenue of 1.10 billion yuan, down 21.11% year-on-year [5]. - The complete cost of pig farming was 12.78 yuan per kilogram, decreasing to 12.7 yuan per kilogram by September. The company is maintaining a stable breeding stock of approximately 140,000 sows and is progressing with the acquisition of Xinjiang Qiangdu Livestock [5].