巴比食品(605338):直营门店加速拓展,经营态势稳健向好

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [2][9]. Core Insights - The company has shown a steady improvement in operational performance, with a significant increase in direct store expansion and a robust business outlook [1][5]. - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1.356 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.05%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 201 million yuan, up 3.51% year-on-year [5]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth rates of 13%, 12%, and 10% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected to grow by 4%, 13%, and 10% in the same period [5]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue from direct sales channels has performed exceptionally well, with a total of 5.22 billion yuan in Q3 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 16.74% [5]. - The gross profit margin improved by 2.81 percentage points to 29.60% in Q3 2025, indicating effective cost management [5]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in net profit margins, which were impacted by non-recurring gains and losses [5]. Financial Projections - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.887 billion yuan, 2.118 billion yuan, and 2.326 billion yuan, respectively [2][5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are 1.20 yuan, 1.35 yuan, and 1.49 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20.7, 18.4, and 16.7 [2][5]. Market Position and Expansion - The company has successfully increased its store count, with a net addition of 249 stores, bringing the total to 5,934 stores [5]. - The report highlights the company's strong performance in various regions, particularly in East China, where it added 248 "Manxiangren" brand stores [5].