GEPIC(SZ:000791) Xinda Securities·2025-10-31 08:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for Gansu Energy is "Buy" [1][7] Core Views - Gansu Energy's performance is supported by the stable pricing of traditional energy sources and the commissioning of the Changle power plant, with ongoing construction and potential new energy projects expected to contribute to future growth [2][3][7] - The company reported a revenue of 6.525 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.64%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.582 billion yuan, up 14.16% year-on-year [1][2] - The average on-grid electricity price for the first three quarters of 2025 was 359.72 yuan per megawatt-hour, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.95% [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-3 2025, Gansu Energy achieved a net profit of 1.582 billion yuan, with a significant increase in net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, which reached 1.572 billion yuan, up 157.90% year-on-year [1][2] - The operating cash flow for the same period was 4.214 billion yuan, an increase of 44.73% year-on-year [1] Power Generation Business - The company’s total electricity generation for Q1-3 2025 was 20.370 billion kilowatt-hours, a decrease of 2.54% year-on-year, with thermal power generation increasing by 2.31% to 14.244 billion kilowatt-hours [2] - The commissioning of the second phase of the Changle power plant is expected to enhance performance, especially with the approaching cold winter in Q4 [2][3] Installed Capacity and Future Prospects - As of September 30, 2025, Gansu Energy's total installed capacity was 8.5397 million kilowatts, with thermal power accounting for 5 million kilowatts [2][5] - The company has approved 5.1 million kilowatts of new energy projects and is expected to see significant growth in its renewable energy capacity, which will contribute to future earnings [5][7] Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profits for Gansu Energy for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.015 billion yuan, 2.270 billion yuan, and 2.395 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.52, 10.23, and 9.70 [6][7]