YUNDA Corp.(SZ:002120) Guoxin Securities·2025-10-31 08:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2025 was under pressure, with revenue of 37.493 billion yuan (+5.6%) and a net profit of 730 million yuan (-48.2%) for the first three quarters. The Q3 revenue was 12.66 billion yuan (+3.3%) with a net profit of 200 million yuan (-45.2%) [8][2] - The company's business volume showed steady growth, achieving 6.42 billion pieces in Q3 2025 (+6.6% year-on-year), although its market share decreased to 13.0%, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year. The "anti-involution" measures implemented in August helped stabilize single-ticket prices, leading to a reduction in the year-on-year decline of single-ticket express revenue from 5.4% in Q2 to 2.1% in Q3 [8][2] - The company’s single-ticket express revenue increased by 0.03 yuan to 1.95 yuan in Q3, supported by price increases from the anti-involution measures [8][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company maintained a gross margin of 6.68%, which is a decrease of 1.86 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 0.83 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net profit per single ticket remained flat at 0.03 yuan [2][16] - The capital expenditure for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.94 billion yuan, indicating that the peak period of capital expenditure has passed [2][16] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the current round of price increases due to anti-involution measures may continue until the end of the year or even into the next Spring Festival. The fourth quarter is expected to show improved performance due to a larger volume of packages covered by price increases and a reduction in negative cost impacts [2][16] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 1.26 billion yuan, 1.72 billion yuan, and 2.01 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of -37%, -26%, and -22% for the respective years [3][18] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 17X for 2025 and 12X for 2026, indicating a valuation that reflects the anticipated recovery in performance due to industry trends [3][18]