平安固收：2025年10月托管月报：预计11-12月供给平稳，保险配置维持强劲-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, the new bond custody scale was 1.1 trillion yuan, the lowest level of the year, with the year - on - year growth rate of bond custody balance at 14.2%, down 0.75 percentage points from August. Government bonds and credit bonds were the main supply forces, while inter - bank certificates of deposit were weak. Banks and insurance institutions increased their bond holdings, while non - legal person products decreased theirs. It is expected that from November to December, the net financing scale of national debt and special bonds will be 1.0 trillion yuan and 930 billion yuan respectively, with a relatively stable supply. Banks are expected to maintain a neutral to slightly strong bond - allocation level, insurance institutions are expected to maintain a strong bond - allocation level, and the buying power of asset management accounts is expected to increase [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Custody Scale in September 2025 - The year - on - year growth rate of bond custody balance was 14.2%, down 0.75 percentage points from August. The new custody scale in September was 1.1 trillion yuan, the lowest of the year, and about 0.9 trillion yuan less than the same period last year [3][4]. 3.2 Bond Supply by Type - Government bonds, credit bonds were the main supply forces, while inter - bank certificates of deposit were weak. National debt, local government bonds, and corporate credit bonds increased by 13.72 billion yuan, 3.08 billion yuan, and 30.23 billion yuan more than the seasonal level respectively. Policy - financial bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit had net financing significantly lower than the seasonal level. Policy - financial bonds increased 13.43 billion yuan less than the seasonal level, possibly due to the concentrated financing of 500 billion yuan in new policy - financial instruments in August. Inter - bank certificates of deposit increased 74.79 billion yuan less than the seasonal level, continuing the weak trend [3][7]. - The new supply of national debt in September was 761.2 billion yuan, and that of local bonds was 455.1 billion yuan, both decreasing month - on - month. The total of the two was 1.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 351.9 billion yuan [11]. - In September, the net supply of inter - bank certificates of deposit was - 40.75 billion yuan, and that of financial bonds was 1.71 billion yuan, both further declining from August. The net supply of corporate credit bonds was 26.93 billion yuan, an increase of 11.58 billion yuan month - on - month, mainly supported by central enterprise credit bonds [17]. 3.3 Bond - Buying Behavior by Institution - Banks and insurance institutions increased their bond holdings, while non - legal person products and foreign investors decreased theirs. In September, banks increased their bond holdings by 981.2 billion yuan (considering repurchase), and the proportion of the increase in bank bond - holding scale to the new government bond custody scale was 68%, at a historically low level. Insurance institutions increased their bond holdings by 252.8 billion yuan, 124.2 billion yuan more than the seasonal level, mainly increasing their holdings of local government bonds and credit bonds. Asset management accounts decreased their bond holdings by 236.6 billion yuan, 331.3 billion yuan less than the seasonal level, mainly reducing their holdings of credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and financial bonds. Foreign investors decreased their bond holdings by 44.9 billion yuan, 15.2 billion yuan less than the seasonal level, mainly reducing their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit. Securities firms increased their bond holdings by 22.7 billion yuan, 35.8 billion yuan less than the seasonal level, mainly increasing their holdings of local government bonds [3][20][34]. 3.4 Outlook for Bond Supply and Institutional Behavior - Bond supply: It is expected that from November to December, the net financing scale of national debt and special bonds will be 1.0 trillion yuan and 930 billion yuan, with a relatively stable supply [3][40]. - Banks: Considering the restart of the central bank's bond - buying and the still - low loan growth rate, it is expected that banks will maintain a neutral to slightly strong bond - allocation level [3][42]. - Insurance institutions: With sufficient premiums and the return of yields to an attractive level for allocation, it is expected that insurance institutions will maintain a strong bond - allocation level [3][44]. - Asset management accounts: With the return of the liability side and the warming of the bond market, the buying power is expected to increase. However, the liability side of funds may still be affected by the potential negative impact of the new public fund fee regulations, and the fund redemption situation needs to be observed [3][47].