吉比特(603444):《杖剑传说》流水稳定,期待《九牧之野》上线贡献增量

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 514.14 CNY, reflecting a P/E ratio of 22 times for 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - The new game "Zhang Jian Chuan Shuo" is expected to maintain high revenue in Q4, while the upcoming SLG game "Jiu Mu Zhi Ye" is anticipated to contribute additional revenue in 2026. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.684 billion, 1.805 billion, and 2.147 billion CNY respectively, reflecting significant growth due to the stability of "Zhang Jian Chuan Shuo" and the better-than-expected performance of "Dao You Lai Wa Bao" [3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue: The company reported revenue of 4,185 million CNY in 2023, with a projected increase to 6,297 million CNY in 2025, representing a growth rate of 70.4% [4][10]. - Net Profit: The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 1,125 million CNY in 2023 to 1,684 million CNY in 2025, marking a growth of 78.2% [4][10]. - Gross Margin: The gross margin is projected to improve from 88.5% in 2023 to 92.8% in 2025 [4][10]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): The EPS is expected to increase from 15.62 CNY in 2023 to 23.37 CNY in 2025 [4][10]. Game Performance Insights - "Zhang Jian Chuan Shuo" has shown stable performance since its launch, consistently ranking in the top 15 of sales charts. Despite a slight decline in monthly revenue, it is expected to contribute significantly in Q4 [9]. - The derivative game "Dao You Lai Wa Bao" has successfully recalled lost users from "Wen Dao," contributing an additional 316 million CNY in revenue since its launch [9]. - The upcoming SLG game "Jiu Mu Zhi Ye" is positioned in a competitive market but has unique features that may allow it to capture market share if successful [9].