TKGF(SH:601233) Donghai Securities·2025-10-31 09:39Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure in the filament industry, but it is expected to benefit from the recovery of PTA prices due to anti-involution measures [1][7] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue decline of 11.38% year-on-year, but a net profit increase of 53.83% year-on-year, attributed to lower raw material costs and increased investment income [7] - The company has a nominal PTA capacity of 10.2 million tons and is expected to benefit from the gradual improvement in the PTA industry as leading companies collaborate to reduce production [7] Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: The company's main revenue is projected to grow from 61,993.35 million in 2022 to 101,306.83 million in 2024, followed by a decline to 95,756.72 million in 2025, and then a recovery to 110,795.26 million by 2027 [4] - Net Profit: The net profit is expected to increase significantly from 130.21 million in 2022 to 2,361.26 million in 2025, reaching 4,408.73 million by 2027 [4] - Gross Margin: The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 3.23% in 2022 to 8.94% by 2027 [4] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): EPS is projected to rise from 0.05 in 2022 to 1.83 by 2027 [4] - Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PE): The PE ratio is expected to decrease from 266.32 in 2022 to 7.87 by 2027 [4] Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading integrated player in the filament industry, with a focus on expanding into western regions and international markets, which is expected to enhance its long-term growth potential [7] - The average operating rate in the polyester filament industry is around 90%, but weak downstream demand has led to price fluctuations [7] - The PTA industry is expected to see a recovery due to improved cost support and a favorable external trade environment, which may lead to a warmer market for filament products [7]