山西汾酒（600809）：省外市场发力，经营韧性较强

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - Shanxi Fenjiu has shown strong operational resilience with stable growth in markets outside its home province, continuing its national expansion strategy [4][7] - The company reported a revenue of 32.9 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, with a net profit of 11.4 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [4][7] - The third quarter of 2025 saw revenues of 9.0 billion yuan, a 4.1% increase year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 1.4% to 2.9 billion yuan [4][7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 36.0 billion yuan in 2024, 37.8 billion yuan in 2025, 40.1 billion yuan in 2026, and 44.1 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.8%, 5.0%, 6.0%, and 10.0% respectively [6][9] - Net profit is expected to reach 12.2 billion yuan in 2024, 12.3 billion yuan in 2025, 13.0 billion yuan in 2026, and 14.5 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 28.9%, 0.5%, 6.1%, and 10.9% respectively [6][9] - The gross margin is projected to be 76.2% in 2024, decreasing slightly to 73.9% by 2025, while the net margin is expected to remain around 32.5% to 34.0% over the forecast period [6][9] Market Performance - In the third quarter of 2025, revenue from the wholesale channel was 8.3 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year, while direct sales through group purchases and e-commerce surged by 125% to 700 million yuan [7] - The company’s revenue from its home province decreased by 35.2% to 2.3 billion yuan, while revenue from outside the province increased by 31.1% to 6.7 billion yuan [7] Financial Ratios - The company maintains a debt-to-asset ratio of 28.0%, indicating a solid financial position [1] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline from 37.5% in 2023 to 27.2% by 2027, reflecting a decrease in profitability over time [6][9]