Bohai Leasing(SZ:000415) Mai Gao Zheng Quan·2025-10-31 10:53Investment Rating - The investment rating for Bohai Leasing is "Buy" with a target price of 4.29 CNY, maintaining the current rating [5]. Core Views - Bohai Leasing reported a revenue of 40.284 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 60.58%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was -1.372 billion CNY, a decrease of 186.31% year-on-year, primarily due to goodwill impairment [1]. - The company’s revenue growth is driven by increased aircraft sales and leasing income, while the net profit decline is significantly impacted by goodwill impairment. Excluding this impairment, the net profit for the first three quarters would be 1.904 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.75% [1]. - The global demand for air passenger transport remains strong, and the aircraft market value, leasing rates, and renewal rates are expected to stay high due to limited production capacity from manufacturers [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Bohai Leasing achieved a revenue of 11.824 billion CNY, up 32.73% year-on-year, with a net profit of 646 million CNY, down 26.03% year-on-year [1]. - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 53.404 billion CNY, 33.728 billion CNY, and 35.983 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.96%, -36.84%, and 6.69% respectively [3][4]. Market Position and Outlook - Avolon, a key player in the aircraft leasing market, has a fleet of 1,159 aircraft, with 99% of the aircraft scheduled for delivery in the next two years already leased out. The demand for aircraft remains robust, with backlogs at historical highs [2]. - The aircraft leasing industry is expected to benefit from the ongoing supply-demand imbalance, with limited availability of aircraft for leasing in the coming years [2]. Valuation Metrics - The projected net profit for 2025 is 135 million CNY, with a significant rebound expected in 2026 and 2027, reaching 1.485 billion CNY and 2.134 billion CNY respectively [3][4]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.74x, 0.70x, and 0.66x respectively, indicating a potential for valuation improvement [3][4].