China Express(SZ:002928) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-10-31 11:22Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [6][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 620 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 102%. The net profit for Q3 alone was 369 million yuan, up 32% from the previous year [6]. - The company has increased its fleet by 5 aircraft, bringing the total to 80 by the end of September 2025, with 61% being regional aircraft [6]. - The company experienced a 19.27% increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) and a 24.23% increase in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025 [6]. - The unit cost continued to decline due to lower fuel prices and operational recovery, with Q3 unit ASK revenue at 0.4545 yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year, while unit ASK operating costs decreased by 8.2% to 0.3921 yuan [6]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 6.696 billion yuan in 2024 to 9.649 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 613 million yuan in 2025 to 1.142 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [3]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 22.5x in 2025 to 12.1x in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics as earnings grow [3]. Company Overview - The total share capital of the company is approximately 1,278.24 million shares, with a market price of 10.80 yuan, resulting in a market capitalization of approximately 13.805 billion yuan [4].