SACO(SZ:002025) Orient Securities·2025-10-31 11:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 52.65 yuan, based on a revised EPS forecast for 2025, 2026, and 2027 of 0.71, 1.35, and 1.79 yuan respectively [3][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.349 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting an increase of 8.87%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 62.77% to 146 million yuan. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 1.414 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 31.73%, and net profit increased by 122.54% year-on-year and 47.88% quarter-on-quarter [2][10]. - The company is experiencing a recovery in operational quality due to cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures, with Q3 showing a rebound in performance and profitability [10]. - The defense market is witnessing a recovery, and the company has seen significant growth in both military and civilian product orders since the beginning of the year, although revenue recognition has been delayed due to extended customer acceptance periods [10]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the company expects revenues of 5.907 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.6%. The operating profit is projected at 422 million yuan, a slight increase of 3.8% compared to the previous year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 325 million yuan, a decrease of 6.5% [4][14]. - The gross margin is expected to decline to 34.3% in 2025, while the net margin is projected at 5.5% [4]. - The company's inventory as of Q3 2025 stood at 2.477 billion yuan, a 33.84% increase from the beginning of the year, indicating strong order demand and production capacity improvements [10].