NHD(SZ:002946) Yin He Zheng Quan·2025-10-31 11:52Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company's low-temperature business continues to grow rapidly, with a significant increase in profitability. In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 29.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, and a net profit of 2.3 billion yuan, up 27.7% year-on-year [6] - The company is experiencing a structural upgrade in its product offerings, with a notable increase in the revenue contribution from new products. The direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel is expected to continue leading growth, supported by successful collaborations with retailers [6] - The company's "Fresh Cube" strategy is expected to drive sustained growth in revenue and profitability, with low-temperature product penetration continuing to rise [6] Financial Performance Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from 10,665 million yuan in 2024 to 12,416 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of -2.93%, 3.90%, 5.70%, and 6.00% respectively [2] - Net profit is expected to increase from 538 million yuan in 2024 to 974 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 24.80%, 31.44%, 18.97%, and 15.79% respectively [2] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 28.36% in 2024 to 29.10% in 2027 [2] Financial Ratios - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 27.23 in 2024 to 15.04 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation [2] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain strong, increasing from 17.6% in 2024 to 19.8% in 2026 and stabilizing thereafter [8] - The company's debt-to-equity ratio is forecasted to improve from 64.6% in 2024 to 55.3% in 2027, reflecting better financial health [8]