新城控股（601155）：商场租金快增，偿债压力减轻

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company is experiencing rapid growth in mall rental income, which is alleviating debt repayment pressure. The strategy of combining residential and commercial real estate is expected to drive long-term quality growth [6] - The company's financial performance shows a significant decline in revenue and profit, but the gross margin and recurring income are improving, indicating a potential for stable operations [6][8] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 88,999 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 25.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 752 million yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 2.1% [5] - For 2025, total revenue is estimated at 59,785 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 32.8%. The net profit is projected to be 945 million yuan, showing a recovery with a growth rate of 25.6% [5] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 19.8% in 2024 to 34.7% by 2027, indicating better cost management and profitability [5] Operational Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 344 billion yuan, down 33.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 9.7 billion yuan, also down 33.0% [6] - The company’s mall rental income reached 105 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, up 11% year-on-year, with a target of 140 billion yuan for the full year [6] - The occupancy rate of malls is reported at 97.8%, showing a slight increase compared to the previous year [6] Debt and Financial Health - The company has seen a reduction in interest-bearing debt, with a total of 531 billion yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year. The debt repayment pressure is expected to decrease further in the coming years [6] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company is classified in the yellow zone of the "three red lines" policy, indicating a manageable level of financial risk [6] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its commercial real estate portfolio to capture the growing consumer market, with a strategic emphasis on quality growth through effective management [6] - The increasing contribution of mall income and gross profit is expected to support the company's stable operations moving forward [6]