BUD APAC(HK:01876) Huachuang Securities·2025-10-31 11:56Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Budweiser APAC (01876.HK) with a target price of HKD 10 [1][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of USD 4.691 billion and normalized EBITDA of USD 1.421 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.6% and 7.7% respectively. The normalized net profit attributable to the parent company was USD 678 million, showing a decrease of 12.7% [1][7]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved total revenue of USD 1.555 billion and normalized EBITDA of USD 438 million, with year-on-year declines of 8.4% and 6.9% respectively. The normalized net profit for Q3 was USD 204 million, down 9.3% year-on-year [1][7]. - The report highlights that the company is undergoing a structured adjustment phase, focusing on reducing inventory and preparing for future growth despite facing significant pressure in the Chinese market [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2024A: USD 6,246 million - 2025E: USD 5,870 million - 2026E: USD 6,014 million - 2027E: USD 6,139 million - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at -8.9% for 2024, -6.0% for 2025, 2.4% for 2026, and 2.1% for 2027 [3][12]. - Net Profit Forecasts: - 2024A: USD 726 million - 2025E: USD 671 million - 2026E: USD 717 million - 2027E: USD 754 million - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at -14.8% for 2024, -7.5% for 2025, 6.7% for 2026, and 5.2% for 2027 [3][12]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2024: USD 0.05 - 2025: USD 0.05 - 2026: USD 0.05 - 2027: USD 0.06 [3][12]. - Valuation Ratios: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is projected at 19 for 2024, 20 for 2025, 19 for 2026, and 18 for 2027 [3][12]. Market Performance - The report indicates that Budweiser APAC's performance in the Asia-Pacific region is under pressure, particularly in China, where revenue declined by 15.1%. However, the company is seeing double-digit growth in high-end and super high-end products in India [7][8]. - The company is actively adjusting its operational strategies, focusing on family-oriented channels and innovative product launches to counteract the declining demand [7][8].