SCIE(SH:600546) Western Securities·2025-10-31 12:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4][8] Core Views - The company has shown improvements in self-produced coal production and sales in Q3, leading to relatively stable performance despite a decline in overall revenue and profit [1][2] - The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is expected to be 1.5 billion, 1.653 billion, and 1.799 billion yuan respectively, with a significant decrease in 2025 followed by modest growth in subsequent years [2][4] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 15.332 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.046 billion yuan, down 49.74% year-on-year [1][4] - In Q3 alone, the company reported operating revenue of 5.673 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.27%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.98% [1][4] - The self-produced coal output for the first three quarters was 26.6414 million tons, an increase of 8.73% year-on-year, while sales volume reached 19.8199 million tons, up 5.31% year-on-year [2][4] Business Segments - The self-produced coal business showed improvement with Q3 production at 8.8202 million tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.98%, and sales volume at 9.4743 million tons, a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 59.77% [2][4] - Conversely, the trading coal business saw a decline in sales volume, with Q3 trading coal sales at 2.6786 million tons, down 38.07% quarter-on-quarter [2][4] Future Projections - The company is expected to focus on its core business and maintain a long-term dividend policy, with a target price estimated at 12.08 yuan based on the DDM model [2][4]