SF Holding(SZ:002352) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-10-31 12:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on performance due to increased investments, but is actively repurchasing shares to stabilize investor confidence [6] - The company reported a revenue of 225.26 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.89%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.31 billion yuan, up 9.07% year-on-year [7] - The company aims to achieve a net profit for Q4 2025 that is roughly flat year-on-year, with an overall annual growth in net profit [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 258.41 billion yuan - 2024A: 284.42 billion yuan - 2025E: 314.08 billion yuan - 2026E: 345.71 billion yuan - 2027E: 383.33 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at -3% for 2023, 10% for 2024-2025, and 11% for 2027 [2][8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected as follows: - 2023A: 8.23 billion yuan - 2024A: 10.17 billion yuan - 2025E: 11.16 billion yuan - 2026E: 12.74 billion yuan - 2027E: 14.80 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 33% for 2023, 24% for 2024, and 10%-16% for 2025-2027 [2][8] - Earnings per share (EPS) projections are: - 2023A: 1.63 yuan - 2024A: 2.02 yuan - 2025E: 2.22 yuan - 2026E: 2.53 yuan - 2027E: 2.94 yuan [2][8] Market Position and Strategy - The company’s express logistics business revenue grew by 14.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with a volume of approximately 4.29 billion parcels, reflecting a 33.4% increase year-on-year [7] - The company has adjusted its share repurchase plan, increasing the total repurchase amount from a minimum of 5 billion yuan to a minimum of 15 billion yuan, with the implementation period extended [7]