Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-31 12:27Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda market is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with inventory replenishment falling short of expectations, upstream inventory accumulation, and weak spot prices. Meanwhile, liquid chlorine is strong, leading to a decline in cost support [3]. - There are still expectations for the downstream aluminum plants' demand for caustic soda inventory in November - December, which may boost the spot market [3]. 3. Content Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2200 - 2400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 22.75%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility over 3 years is 43.8% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 2400 - 2450, or sell call options (SH601C2400) with a 50% ratio at an entry range of 40 - 50 to lock in profits and reduce costs [2]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low regular inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 2200 - 2250, or sell put options (SH601P2200) with a 50% ratio at an entry range of 40 - 50 to lock in purchase costs and reduce expenses [2]. 3.3 Market Data - Futures Prices and Changes: On October 31, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2483 (up 3 or 0.12% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 2567 (down 4 or - 0.16%), and the 01 contract was 2310 (down 7 or - 0.3%) [4]. - Spot Prices: The 32 - alkali ex - factory prices in Shandong (Jinling and Haihua), Jiangsu (Xinpu, Jinqiao, etc.), and other regions remained mostly unchanged on October 31, 2025, except for a 1.5% decline in Shaanxi Beiyuan. The 50 - alkali and flake caustic soda prices also showed little change in most regions, with some slight declines in Shandong and Shaanxi [4][7][8]. - Price Spreads: The monthly spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) of caustic soda futures showed some changes on October 31, 2025. The brand/regional spreads of caustic soda remained mostly stable, with a slight decline in the 50 - alkali spread between Guangdong and Shandong [4][8]. 3.4 Market Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: There are expectations for the downstream aluminum plants' demand for caustic soda inventory in November - December, which may boost the spot market [3]. - Negative Factors: The caustic soda market is facing a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Alkali plants have high profits, leading to increased production and supply pressure. Non - aluminum inventory replenishment demand is lower than expected, and the alumina market is under pressure, which may affect the demand for caustic soda [3][6].