国投电力（600886）：Q3雅砻江来水同比偏枯，公司业绩小幅下滑

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guotou Electric Power (600886.SH) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Guotou Electric Power's performance has slightly declined due to lower water inflow from the Yalong River, a decrease in thermal power generation, and a drop in average on-grid electricity prices [2][3] - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 40.572 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.517 billion yuan, down 0.92% year-on-year [2] - The report highlights the potential for significant growth in the company's hydropower business, particularly with the Yalong River hydropower assets, which are expected to contribute to substantial increases in electricity generation in the long term [5][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported an operating revenue of 14.876 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13.98%, and a net profit of 2.723 billion yuan, down 3.94% year-on-year [2][3] - The average on-grid electricity price for the company's controlled enterprises was 0.346 yuan/kWh in the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 3.9% compared to the same period last year [4] Electricity Generation - The company's hydropower generation in the first three quarters of 2025 was 78.881 billion kWh, a decrease of 1.26% year-on-year, with Q3 generation dropping significantly by 14.82% due to lower water inflow [3] - Thermal power generation saw a decline of 20.44% year-on-year in the first three quarters, attributed to increased competition from clean energy sources [3] - The company's solar power generation increased by 38.13% year-on-year in the first three quarters, while wind power generation saw a modest increase of 1.57% [3][8] Future Outlook - The report projects that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 7.188 billion yuan in 2025, with growth rates of 8.2% in 2025, 3.5% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027 [7][8] - The company is expected to benefit from improvements in water inflow and the release of generation capacity from new hydropower stations, alongside rapid growth in renewable energy installations [8]