百润股份（002568）：2025年三季度预调酒业务有所改善，费用投放阶段性增加

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][12][15] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 780 million yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, ending a five-quarter decline in revenue. The improvement in the pre-mixed liquor business and the contribution from the whiskey segment were noted as key factors [1][10] - The gross margin remained stable, while sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios increased by 3.2, 0.5, 0.1, and -0.1 percentage points respectively, primarily due to the initial development phase of the whiskey business [2][11] - The company has actively improved accounts receivable management, resulting in a significant reduction of 65.5% in accounts receivable balance compared to the beginning of the year, indicating improved revenue quality [2][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 160 million yuan, down 6.8% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was also 160 million yuan, down 5.4% year-on-year [1][10] - The revenue from the liquor business in Q3 was 680 million yuan, up 1.5% year-on-year, with expectations of a narrowing decline in pre-mixed liquor revenue and increased contributions from the whiskey business [1][10] Investment Recommendations and Profit Forecasts - The company is expected to see a recovery in revenue growth in the pre-mixed liquor segment in Q4 2025, supported by improved channel inventory management and the introduction of new products [3][12] - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 3.04 billion, 3.30 billion, and 3.56 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 730 million, 820 million, and 911 million yuan [3][12][14] - The current price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 36, 32, and 29 times respectively, reflecting the company's strong market position and growth potential in the whiskey segment [3][12][15]