温氏股份（300498）：2025年三季报点评报告：成本优势稳健，肉鸡盈利逐步修复

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 758.17 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a slight decrease of 0.04% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.256 billion yuan, down 18.29% year-on-year. The Q3 revenue was 259.42 billion yuan, down 9.80% year-on-year, and the net profit was 1.781 billion yuan, down 65.02% year-on-year, primarily due to the continuous decline in pig prices [1] - The company has seen a significant increase in pig output, with a cumulative output of 27.6677 million pigs in Q1-Q3 2025, up 28.3% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, the output was 9.7358 million pigs, up 35.5% year-on-year. The average selling price for pigs in Q3 was 13.9 yuan/kg, down 28.7% year-on-year due to the release of production capacity [2] - The chicken business has shown signs of recovery, with cumulative sales of 94.799 million chickens in Q1-Q3 2025, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year. The average selling price for chickens in Q3 was 11.9 yuan/kg, down 9.8% year-on-year but up 10.2% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a recovery in prices since August [3] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1007.76 billion yuan, 1054.26 billion yuan, and 1095.68 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year changes of -3.90%, +4.61%, and +3.93%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 5.544 billion yuan, 9.154 billion yuan, and 10.559 billion yuan for the same years, with year-on-year changes of -39.94%, +65.13%, and +15.34% [4][5] - The company maintains a strong focus on cost advantages in pig and chicken farming, with a projected PE ratio of 22, 13, and 11 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]