五粮液（000858）：五粮液：Q3主动调整致短期承压，蓄力换挡静待风来

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Wuliangye [1] Core Views - Wuliangye is experiencing short-term pressure due to proactive adjustments, aiming for a balance between volume and price while waiting for market recovery [5] - The company reported a total revenue of 60.945 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 21.511 billion yuan, down 13.72% year-on-year [4][6] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 8.174 billion yuan, a significant decline of 52.66% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.019 billion yuan, down 65.62% year-on-year [4][6] Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the gross profit margin was 74.9%, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 2025 saw a gross profit margin of 62.6%, down 13.5 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company’s net profit margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 35.3%, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 2025 net profit margin at 24.7%, down 9.3 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 25.78 yuan per 10 shares (before tax), totaling 10.007 billion yuan, reflecting a mid-term dividend yield of 2.17% [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are projected at -15.0%, 0.0%, and 4.0%, respectively, while net profit growth rates are expected to be -16.2%, 2.0%, and 4.3% [7] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 6.88 yuan, 7.01 yuan, and 7.32 yuan, respectively, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17x for 2025 and 16x for 2026 and 2027 [7][9] Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively optimizing channel inventory and stabilizing product prices to maintain long-term brand value, despite short-term impacts on financial statements [5] - A new product, "29° Wuliangye·First Encounter," targeting younger consumers, has achieved over 100 million yuan in sales within two months of its launch [5]