SCIE(SH:600546) Guohai Securities·2025-10-31 13:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's coal production and sales have shown an increase in the first three quarters of 2025, with a notable rise in self-produced coal sales in Q3 [6][7] - The average selling price of coal has decreased significantly, leading to a decline in profit margins, but the company maintains a strong profitability outlook due to low production costs [8][11] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 15.332 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.046 billion yuan, down 49.74% [6] - The third quarter saw an operating revenue of 5.673 billion yuan, an increase of 9.98% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 391 million yuan, a decrease of 2.18% [6] Coal Production and Sales - The company reported a raw coal production of 26.6414 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 8.73% year-on-year, while the total coal sales were 30.0364 million tons, down 9.28% [7] - Self-produced coal sales reached 9.4743 million tons in Q3, a significant increase of 59.77% quarter-on-quarter [7] Pricing and Cost Analysis - The average selling price of self-produced coal was 509.31 yuan per ton, down 24.72% year-on-year, while the unit cost for self-produced coal was 253.83 yuan per ton, a decrease of 13.30% [7] - The unit gross profit for self-produced coal was 255.48 yuan per ton, down 33.42% year-on-year, indicating a decline in profitability despite lower costs [7] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 24 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 1.476 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 35% [11] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.74 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.59 [11]