SCSF(SH:600779) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-31 13:49Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported lower-than-expected performance for Q3 2025, with total revenue of 2.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 38.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 326 million yuan, down 71.0% year-on-year [6] - The report indicates a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 due to significant declines in revenue and profit amid external pressures, with expected net profits of 590 million, 685 million, and 854 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] - The report highlights a significant drop in the company's white liquor business revenue, which fell to 817 million yuan in Q3 2025, a decrease of 59.9% year-on-year, with sales volume down 11.2% and average price per ton down 39.5% [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 5.217 billion yuan for 2024, 3.111 billion yuan for 2025, 3.350 billion yuan for 2026, and 3.703 billion yuan for 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 5.3%, -40.4%, 7.7%, and 10.5% [4] - The expected net profit for 2025 is 590 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 56.0%, with subsequent increases of 16.1% and 24.7% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [4] - The company's gross margin is projected to be 80.7% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 11.0% [4] Market Data - As of October 31, 2025, the company's closing price is 42.29 yuan, with a market capitalization of 20.617 billion yuan and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 35x for 2025 [1][4] - The stock has a dividend yield of 2.29%, calculated based on the most recently announced dividends [1]