JIN LEI(SZ:300443) Guoxin Securities·2025-10-31 13:51Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][28]. Core Insights - The company has experienced significant revenue and profit growth in the first three quarters, with revenue reaching 2.119 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.35%, and a net profit of 305 million yuan, up 104.59% year-on-year [1][8]. - The demand for forging business remains strong, while the casting business is entering a harvest period, particularly in the wind power sector [1][2]. - The company has successfully turned around its Dongying subsidiary, achieving profitability with a revenue of 438 million yuan and a net profit of 20 million yuan in the first half of 2023 [2][18]. - The company is expanding its wind power materials business and has established a subsidiary to enter the bearing sector, indicating a strategic move towards integrated solutions in wind power transmission [2][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, the company achieved revenue of 836 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.36%, and a net profit of 117 million yuan, up 56.50% year-on-year [1][18]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 26.41%, an increase of 1.55 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 14.07%, up 1.54 percentage points year-on-year [1][18]. Revenue Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.112 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 58.2%, and net profits of 437 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 152.9% [4][27]. - For the years 2025-2027, the expected revenues are 31.12 billion yuan, 39.67 billion yuan, and 44.12 billion yuan, respectively [20][27]. Business Segments - The wind power main shaft segment is expected to generate revenues of 22.1 billion yuan in 2025, with a gross margin of 24.1% [21]. - Other precision shaft products are projected to achieve revenues of 5.0 billion yuan in 2025, with a gross margin of 34.0% [22][23]. - The company anticipates that other businesses, including wind power castings and sliding bearings, will generate revenues of 4.0 billion yuan in 2025, with a gross margin of 10.9% [25].