Roborock(SH:688169) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-10-31 14:19Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 60.7% year-on-year in Q3 2025, achieving a total revenue of 4.16 billion yuan. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 360 million yuan, reflecting a 2.5% increase, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 340 million yuan, up by 3.0% [1] - Due to the impact of the suspension of national subsidies and the introduction of self-subsidies, the profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards. The expected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.53 billion, 2.38 billion, and 3.14 billion yuan, respectively [1] - The company has adopted a brand-first strategy since Q3 2024, leading to rapid revenue growth and continued improvement in net profit margins [1] Revenue Growth - Domestic sales of floor cleaning machines and washing machines are expected to grow by 40% and over 500% year-on-year, respectively, in Q3 2025. The online market share for floor cleaning machines and washing machines reached 28.5% and 23.8%, respectively, with increases of 2.9 and 21.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] - International sales are also projected to grow by approximately 40%, with Europe expected to see a 50% increase and North America around 25% due to trade and tariff policies [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 42.1%, a decrease of 11.8%. This decline is attributed to the suspension of national subsidies and an increase in the sales proportion of lower-margin washing machines [2] - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 8.7%, down by 4.9 percentage points, while the net profit margin excluding non-recurring items improved by 2.3 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [2] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - The projected revenue for 2025 is 18.92 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 58.4%. The expected net profit for 2025 is 1.53 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 22.7% year-on-year [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 5.90 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 27.7 times [3] Market Capitalization and Stock Performance - The current stock price is 163.40 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 42.34 billion yuan [4]