pingmei coal(SH:601666) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-10-31 14:21Investment Rating - The investment rating for Pingmei Shenma Group Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to a significant decline in coal prices, but the strategic restructuring of the group opens up new growth opportunities [4][6] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 14.816 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.46%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 280 million yuan, down 86.32% year-on-year [4] - The company is expected to maintain its profit forecast, with net profits projected at 620 million yuan, 1.21 billion yuan, and 1.52 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -73.8%, +96.3%, and +25.3% [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.696 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.51% quarter-on-quarter, and a net profit of 22 million yuan, down 79.45% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - The company's operating costs in Q3 were approximately 4.618 billion yuan, slightly lower than the revenue, indicating a near breakeven point in gross profit [5] - As of the end of Q3, inventory increased by 135.08% compared to the beginning of the year, reaching 1.301 billion yuan, primarily due to a slowdown in sales during the first half of the year [5] Strategic Restructuring and Cost Management - The strategic restructuring announced on September 25, 2025, between the controlling shareholder and Henan Energy Group is expected to enhance resource acquisition and industry synergy, benefiting the company as a core coal business platform [6] - The company has made significant progress in cost control, with coal production costs reduced to approximately 620 yuan per ton in the first half of 2025, with expectations to drop below 600 yuan in the second half [6] - Management expenses decreased significantly by 58.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, providing crucial support for profits [6] Growth Prospects and Shareholder Returns - The company's projects in Xinjiang are progressing steadily, with the Sijia Tree coal mine contributing over 11 million yuan in profits in the first half of 2025 [6] - The company is committed to returning value to shareholders, with a share buyback program resulting in 1.3 billion yuan in treasury stock by the end of Q3, and a commitment to maintain a 60% cash dividend payout ratio from 2023 to 2025 [6]