Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company is experiencing fluctuations in orders from existing customers, while new customer growth remains strong. The sales volume of athletic shoes for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 168 million pairs, a year-on-year increase of 3.04%. However, Q3 saw a decline in sales volume by 3.6% to 53 million pairs due to short-term order adjustments from some existing customers [6] - The new factories are showing improved profitability, with the gross margin for the first three quarters at 21.96%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.85 percentage points. The gross margin for Q3 improved by 1.11 percentage points compared to Q2. As the new factories mature and cost reduction measures are implemented, further improvement in gross margin is expected [6] - The company is in a rapid capacity expansion phase, with three out of four new athletic shoe production facilities expected to achieve profitability in Q3 2025. The order structure is continuously optimized, and it is anticipated that orders from existing customers will stabilize in 2026 after supply chain adjustments are completed [6] Financial Forecast Summary - Revenue (in million yuan) is projected to grow from 24,006 in 2024 to 31,649 in 2027, with a revenue growth rate of 19.35% in 2024, declining to 11.08% by 2027 [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 3,840 million yuan in 2024 to 3,318 million yuan in 2025, before recovering to 4,566 million yuan in 2027 [2] - The diluted EPS is forecasted to decline from 3.29 yuan in 2024 to 2.84 yuan in 2025, with a gradual increase to 3.91 yuan by 2027 [2] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to rise from 17.25 in 2024 to 19.96 in 2025, before decreasing to 14.51 in 2027 [2]
华利集团（300979）：老客户订单波动，新工厂盈利改善