兴业银行（601166）：经营向好态势延续

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company continues to show a positive operational trend with a narrowing revenue decline and stable profit growth, supported by a recovery in interest margins and improved generation [1][2] - The company reported a year-on-year revenue decline of 1.8% and a slight increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.1% for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating performance in line with expectations [1][5] - The company has announced its first interim dividend of 30.02%, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio, reflecting its value characteristics [3] Revenue and Profit Overview - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders showed a year-on-year decline of 1.8% and an increase of 0.1%, respectively, with the revenue decline narrowing compared to the first half of 2025 [1][12] - The interest margin for Q3 2025 increased by 4 basis points to 1.55%, primarily due to a significant improvement in funding costs [2] - Non-interest income grew by 3.8% year-on-year, benefiting from a recovery in capital markets and a solid customer base [1] Asset Quality and Risk Indicators - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.08% as of the end of Q3 2025, with a slight increase in the attention loan ratio to 1.67% [4] - The provision coverage ratio decreased by 1 percentage point to 228%, indicating a stable asset quality [4] - The company reported a significant improvement in the generation of non-performing loans, with a year-on-year decline in new non-performing loans in corporate real estate and credit cards [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit growth rates for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 0.22%, 5.05%, and 5.39%, respectively, with corresponding book values per share of 38.92, 41.49, and 44.21 yuan [5][12] - The target price is set at 25.82 yuan per share, implying a potential upside of 28% based on the current price [5]