建发股份（600153）：业绩下滑低于预期，地产销售逆势增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7] Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1-Q3 2025 showed a revenue decline of 0.6% year-on-year, with a net profit drop of 44.2%, which was below market expectations [7] - Despite the overall performance decline, the real estate sales increased by 18% year-on-year, indicating resilience in this segment [7] - The supply chain segment reported a revenue increase of 4% year-on-year, demonstrating steady growth [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 711,816 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.5% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 2,302 million for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 21.9% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 0.79, down from 0.82 in 2024 [6] Segment Performance - The real estate segment reported a revenue of 640.4 billion in Q1-Q3 2025, down 21% year-on-year, with a net profit of -2.3 billion [7] - The supply chain segment achieved a revenue of 4,299.8 billion in Q1-Q3 2025, with a net profit of 23.4 billion, both showing a 4% increase year-on-year [7] - The overall gross margin for the company was 4.0% in Q1-Q3 2025, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [7]